Watching

I'm watching. Silent in voice for the most part, if not in thought or dream.

The economy will never be what it once was; an economy of some sort there will be, but it will be very localized, regionalized perhaps, but rarely much more than that. The resources the great global economy were built on are either no more or dwindling fast. We no longer have the resources to change things as long as we insist on keeping things going as they are...which is precisely what we are doing.

The word is out; the Arctic is warmer than it should be by far and much warmer than it was predicted to be by 2015; we could easily be looking at totally ice free summers in the Arctic in a couple of years. Farewell the polar bear and others of that sort; they are in good company as the extinction continues.

We are too little and too late to affect Climate Change. That change is likely to be very harsh if not catastrophic. Such things cause migrations, of which we have been seeing the beginning in the last few years. They will get worse. Such changes also cause food shortages.

We cannot produce enough food for our people without the heavy petroleum product agribusiness farming we currently use. No manner of fancy tricks will get around that. If Climate Change should toss its hat into the ring, how much worse might that become?

Petroleum product production peaked last year. It plateaued in '05. By 2015 we'll be producing 60mbd by some estimates...while maintaining an 80+ mbd demand. That's pretty optimistic too according to some.

A lot of people post hopeful notes on how they believe we will get by better than expected, that the better natures of people and their ingenuity will make this less difficult than it could be. You know, I really, really hope they are right.

But I am not going to base one calculation on that hope. Not even close.

It is unlikely we will be able to purchase a home in the accustomed way or in the near future; there is no credit and prices are being stubbornly kept out of reach of most folk here. This won't last, but by the time it corrects itself there won't be much left of the banking system we once knew...and money may be worth very little or be valued in a totally different way.

I'm far more interested in how various governments are going to handle land allocation; reallocation for more efficient and careful use will have to be done at some point. Historically, land issues have been involved in most revolutions....

Sharon Astyk has made some predictions for '09...she was pretty good with her '08 statements. Some on the new list have already happened; apparently she doesn't think so and that's fine. But I'm not about to don rosy glasses; I handle negative things very well thanks. Depression isn't a problem for me.

I agree though, that this coming year will be the year of 'Collapse', depending on how one defines it. If we are fortunate then it won't be the sort that leaps to mind or happens in novels. If we are not...well, there's a lot of shading in that word.

I've already heard a number of folk talking about going shopping with firearms if things get really bad; they know people who have prepared and they themselves haven't. In this state the chance they'll run into someone who also is armed and prepared to use force is not high; we've got a very cowed populace here. I am not one of them.

I agree with Sharon that some form of normalcy may hang on until Summer. If we are fortunate. I hope so. I really do.

I'm a basically happy person, generally easygoing and I don't get depressed easily; even when I do I don't stay there for very long at all...never even a day and it is a rare event. But I'm not a happy-happy-joy-joy person either when it comes to reality. I take it face on and drive into it, no softening, no padding...just frontal assault. Reality is a bitch when it comes knocking and it hurts a lot, so I don't give it the chance to hurt more by trying to soften things...or build contingency plans on hope or assumptions. Other than expect and prepare for the worst....then be very happy if it doesn't happen.

I still look askance at people who appear to assume that people with families will quietly starve because it is the law rather than try to do what they have to in order to survive. I'm guessing folk are using the Great Depression as a model...but this isn't then and our people are not those...and we don't have the huge pool of resources to get us out of this. Not any longer. And they didn't have Climate Change to sweeten the mix. So I don't go too far in such comparisons. Also because I'm not the sort to sit and starve due to status issues; I'll leave that to others. I will do what I have to do if I am pushed to it.

It is very possible we'll wind up homeless in the coming year, especially if Jen gets laid off; there will be a lot of that going on next year. Just how do people think I'll handle that? I've been there before, I can survive it. I was content to more or less do as society expected since I was single then. I've a family now. That changes the equation dramatically. I don't have living relatives to go to, nor does she. We are all we have and we are not alone in that respect. It is easy not to see such people...but it is a mistake to blind oneself to them. It will become moreso in time.

So we're hunting for a house to rent. Rents are climbing, not falling, as foreclosures mount so success if far from guaranteed. We are looking though. We can't move until February unfortunately, but there it is. Mostly I'm trying to find a place where I can set up my forge and do a bit of gardening. If we can do that we can manage I think.

A hard year is coming. It is a bit late to prepare, but if you haven't I suggest you try. If you've put it off I suggest you stop doing so.

May the Gods grant blessings in equal measure to merit, and a deal more besides.

Cyfnos Gwynt /|\